To sum up. Obama needs to sweep until March 4, steal Ohio or Texas, and then try to win PA. If he does that, he'll be the nominee based on the other states involved. Clinton needs to try to win a state before March 4 and then lock down Obama in the big states of Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If something in between those two possibilities takes place, we're headed for a floor fight in Denver.
Well, let's do the math. Obama won all 10 states by double digits. It appears that Obama could lose Texas close and yet still get more delegates than Hillary (the polls show a tie at the moment). If Obama's momentum continues and he wins Texas outright, it's over. Hillary's stuck in general. Basically, she needs to win her remaining states by 2 to 1 margins which she's only done once (Arkansas) while somehow holding off Obama's momentum. Given that Obama keeps getting more time between contests and his propensity for closing hard in states that he campaigns in, it's very hard to envision a scenario where Hillary is the nominee without chicanery.
No comments:
Post a Comment