Wednesday, May 7, 2008

It's over

That's the only conclusion you can make after last night's results. When you delve into the math, Hillary has very few (if any) legitimate arguments left. First let's give the sobering reality of cold facts.

Fact: Obama will have a huge pledged delegate lead once the primary season.

Fact: Obama has won at least twice as many states.

Fact: Even adding in Florida and Michigan along with the caucus totals, Obama will win the popular vote.

Fact: Obama has won among Independents in all but 4 states (AR, OK, MA, RI). While Hillary can point to her double digit wins among Independents in Massachusetts and Arkansas, Obama has won by double digits in battle grounds like Missouri (67-30), Iowa (41-17), Virginia (69-30), Wisconsin (64-33), New Mexico (65-29), Nevada (47-33) and New Hampshire (41-31). What's really striking is that Hillary's biggest win among Independents is in Arkansas (home state edge) by 24. Obama's managed to win by bigger margins in several battleground states (VA, WI, NM, IA, and MO). For all of Obama's perceived struggles in Pennsylvania and Ohio (we'll come back to that), people have forgotten he won among Independents in both states (50-48 in Ohio and 54-46). Moreover Obama won Independents 55-45 last night in Indiana. What's striking is that since the Reverend Wright scandal broke, he's actually done better among Independents in two demographically similar states to Ohio.

This leaves Hillary with one argument that we heard repeatedly last night from Clinton surrogates. She does better against McCain than Obama does in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. While true at the moment, it omits the obvious that I hinted at above. There was no exit polling in Florida. However Obama outperformed her among Independents in Ohio and Pennsylvania and he seems to be improving in the key demographics in those states. Moreover Obama does better than Clinton against McCain in all of the following possible battlegrounds: MI, CO, NV, NM, WI, MN, WA, OR, MO, IA, VA, and NJ. In other words out of 15 realistic (16 if you count Arkansas) battle grounds, Obama does better in 12. He wins among Independents in 14 of them. Who's the electable one, again?

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